by Jason Sorens

The Free State Project was founded on the idea that a critical mass of dedicated activists could wield political influence out of all proportion to their numbers, especially if they had good ideas that appealed to the interests and sympathies of the majority of the population. I made some attempts to quantify that influence through voter-activist ratios drawn from different but arguably comparable contexts. In the more recent study, I argued that attaining 1% of the local population constituted a critical mass.

Until now, however, we had no direct evidence about how many Free Staters would be needed to achieve political victories in New Hampshire. The recent New Hampshire presidential primary, coming now with well over 500 Free Staters in the state, affords us the first opportunity to examine our prospects with hard evidence. In this election, there was one reasonably libertarian presidential candidate running in a statewide race: Ron Paul. While not all Free Staters supported Ron Paul's candidacy, I think it is fair to say that he was far more popular among Free Staters than any other candidate, particularly before the newsletters revelations that broke on the day of the New Hampshire primary.

My method is to examine how the ratio of Free Staters to Republican primary voters in each town affected Ron Paul's percentage of the vote in those towns, by using regression analysis. This method vastly understates the true influence of Free Staters on the election, because it is unrealistic to assume that Free Staters' primary influence on the election was solely within their own towns. However, it is not possible to assess Free Staters' influences on the state as a whole directly. We can note that according to ronpaulgraphs.com, a higher percentage of the New Hampshire population has donated to Ron Paul than of any other state, and we can also note that Ron Paul's finish in New Hampshire, 8% of the vote, is double what he has consistently polled in the rest of the country. Notwithstanding these encouraging figures, we cannot know to what degree they are attributable to the efforts of Free Staters rather than to the state's pre-existing libertarian base.

Before reporting the results of the regression analysis, I should mention a few interesting town results. Among towns with a population above 500, Ron Paul's best results were in Richmond (35.5%), which he won, Wentworth (24.2%), and Grafton (23.2%). All three towns have some Free Staters; in fact, FSP participants represent 0.9% of the population of Grafton, close to the critical 1.0% mark. I think it's fair to say that if Ron Paul were perceived as having a shot at winning the nomination or even the state's primary, his numbers would have been higher in every town, because many New Hampshire voters who liked Paul appear to have voted tactically for another candidate (more on this below).

The main result from the regression analysis is that every additional Free Stater per 100 Republican primary voters resulted in approximately 2.5 percentage points improvement in Ron Paul's share of the vote in that town. Thus, in Grafton, Free Staters represented 4% of Republican primary voters (we don't know that they all voted, or voted Republican, or even supported Ron Paul, of course), and the model predicts that if no Free Staters lived in Grafton, Ron Paul would have gotten 13% of the vote, instead of 23% (23-0.4*2.5). The margin of error of the estimated "FSP effect" is about 1.0. What that means that we definitely know that Free Staters influenced the election beyond their own votes. If we assume that, say, 75% of Free Staters voted for Ron Paul, then the 2.5 figure means that the average Free Stater Ron Paul supporter brought along two and a half neighbors to support Ron Paul as well (2.5/0.75-0.75), and they definitely brought along at least one neighbor (1.5/0.75-0.75), and could have brought along as many as four (3.5/0.75-0.75). As I mentioned above, these are only the effects that Free Staters had in their own towns. (For technical details, see the end of this essay.)

I also looked at the effects of New Hampshire "Pioneers" on the Ron Paul vote. Pioneers are New Hampshire residents who sign up on our website stating that they support the goals of the Project. They are not counted in our Participants count because they didn't have to move. I find that the percentage of Pioneers in each town has a weaker effect on Ron Paul's vote share, about 1.6 instead of 2.5. One could draw the conclusion that Pioneers, freedom supporters who did not move into the state under the auspices of the Free State Project, were less effective activists in this election than Participants who either moved into the state or signed up for the FSP before we chose New Hampshire, but another possibility is that Pioneers were as a group less likely to support Ron Paul than were Participants.

The regression results yield some other interesting insights into why Paul lost the election. I find that average home value from the Census, percentage of the town's population that lives in an urban area, per capita income in the town, and seasonal vacancy rates (proxying importance of the tourism industry in the town) are all strongly negatively correlated with Ron Paul support. In other words, those parts of the state that are doing well economically did not support Ron Paul. Paul did better in poor, rural areas without a large tourism industry.

These results match up well with exit poll results that show that Paul did best among those with incomes under $30,000 and worst among those with incomes over $100,000, better among those without a college degree than college grads, and far better among those "very worried about the economy" than those with other opinions.

In other words, Paul appealed to voters who felt very economically insecure. It seems highly plausible that the reason for this was that New Hampshire voters perceived Paul as an economic isolationist, ready to shut down international trade and immigration. The idea that Paul is basically a Buchananite with libertarian rhetoric is a common perception (misperception?) among supporters of other candidates with whom I have had contact. Since New Hampshire is a dynamic, open state with an international seaport and a border with Canada, protectionism doesn't sell in New Hampshire - at least, not any longer. The wealthy and well-educated presumably viewed Paul's proposals for a border wall and withdrawal from the WTO and NAFTA with alarm, even though Paul insists that he supports unilateral free trade.

So one reason Ron Paul lost New Hampshire is that his noninterventionist rhetoric has at times painted him as an isolationist. He has failed to stress his support for a dynamic international economy. (For what it's worth, I personally disagree with his stances on immigration and international trade agreements.)

Another reason Paul lost was tactical voting. New Hampshire voters were far more likely to oppose the war and be angry at the Bush Administration than had been Iowa voters. But Paul did worse, because the exit polls show these voters going to McCain. 49% of voters with a "somewhat favorable" opinion of Paul voted for McCain, and only 3% for Paul himself! McCain, who says he is willing to keep U.S. troops in Iraq for 100 years, did far better among voters who oppose the Iraq war than among those who support it! Part of the reason for the results has to be simple voter ignorance, but part of it also has to do with the fact that the race was perceived as a battle among McCain, Romney, and Huckabee, and N.H. voters chose the candidate they thought most likely to change the Bush Administration's policies.

Finally, Ron Paul did worse than he might have otherwise because of the huge turnout. He actually received about 6,500 more votes in New Hampshire than in Iowa, and New Hampshire has fewer than half the eligible voters of Iowa! Had turnout in Iowa been at New Hampshire levels, I suspect Paul would have gotten less than 8% in Iowa, given that Ron Paul supporters are more passionate about their candidate than are supporters of other candidates (hence all the straw poll victories). One really can't directly compare results from caucuses, which have low turnout, to results from primaries, which have higher turnout.

In conclusion, the data show that Free Staters, most of whom have only moved to their location within the last year or two, have already begun to persuade their neighbors to vote for libertarian candidates. It will be interesting to see how their numbers affect the results when there is a statewide election involving a freedom-friendly candidate who actually has a chance of winning.

(Technical Appendix. Regressions are Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions with robust standard errors of Ron Paul's percentage of the vote on Free State Project Participants as a percentage of the Republican primary vote, rural population percentage from the Census, and the natural logarithm of median home value from the Census. Each town is an observation, and each observation was weighted by the total number of Republican primary votes from the town (i.e., bigger towns "count more" in the regression). A few towns had no votes for Ron Paul, creating a corner solution in the data. Tobit regression did not change the results appreciably. Adding all of the following control variables also did not change the results appreciably: farm population percentage, per capita income*, percentage of population on public assistance, seasonal vacancy rate*, other vacancy rate*, median rent, median real estate taxes, 2004 percentage of the vote for Craig Benson, and a dummy variable for college towns. [* Indicates statistically significant.] Adding Free State Pioneers as a percentage of the vote caused both "Free Stater variables" to lose statistical significance, marginally, because of high collinearity between the two, but the coefficient estimate on the FSP Participants variable remained stable.)

For Immediate Release

January 6, 2008

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES MEET FREE STATERS

Nashua, NH - The final day of the 2008 Liberty Forum started early and featured a presidential debate, sessions on working with the NH GOP, citizen activism, the constitution, and making the move to New Hampshire. "Moving liberty forward also means meeting face to face with the current and future political leaders of our state and the nation, so we're very happy to have all the candidates at the Forum to share their message with the Free State Project", said Forum organizer Chris Lawless.

The final day of the Forum saw more than 400 attendees, surpassing last year's attendance by a third.

The morning featured a two-hour presidential debate among five Libertarian Party candidates - Daniel Imperato, Michael Jingozian, Alden Link, George Phillies and Wayne Allyn Root. Questions came from the moderators, the audience, and each other and covered a full range of issues. The candidates talked about the conflict in Iraq, taxation, spending, foreign policy, the environment, infrastructure and the promoting the Libertarian message. Candidates talked about why they were the best choice, their own campaign for the nomination, and their plans for the general election should they win the nomination.

The other popular session was a panel made of Free State Project members who have moved to New Hampshire, highlighting the challenges and successes of making the move and getting acclimated to their new home. They fielded questions from the audience of likely movers as well as hearing other advice from natives who offered to help in any way they could.

The keynote speaker for the closing ceremonies was Congressman Ron Paul, who drew a capacity crowd of nearly 500 people and dozens of media outlets in the hotel ballroom. He talked about his campaign and thanked the hundreds of volunteers in New Hampshire and those who've come to the state to help the campaign. His speech garnered lots of applause, particularly his message of a sound monetary policy, bringing the troops home, cutting spending and returning the GOP back to its conservative roots. Dr. Paul told the audience that there is no need to give up liberty in order to provide security for America.

The Liberty Forum ran from January 4th through 6th at the Crowne Plaza in Nashua. The Forum featured speakers on a variety of topics ranging from drug policy to immigration to taxes to the morality of liberty. Full details are at http://www.freestateproject.org/libertyforum

For Immediate Release

January 5, 2008

PORCUPINES TALK POLITICAL PARTIES, ACTIVISM, GUNS AND TAXES

Nashua, NH - The second day of the 2008 Liberty Forum started early and covered working with political parties, citizen activism, the law, taxes and being a better advocate for liberty. "All these topics are important for moving liberty forward, which is the overall theme of the forum. You have to know how the system works in order to change it." said Forum organizer Chris Lawless.

The day saw attendance surpassing last year's, with more than 350 attendees registering for the various speakers, lunch sessions and keynote dinner.

The morning sessions included working with the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire and a presentation by Dr. Jim Lark, former chairman of the national LP. Lark's presentation was "avoiding knee-jerk libertarianism" and highlighted that Libertarianism is "being a good neighbor" and that the burden of proof must be on the statists to show that their programs will actually work. Dr. Lark said that "getting people to think is the way to bring them to libertarianism."

Tyler Sterns, the 18-year old NH Liberty Alliance activist of the year, talked about his own experience getting involved in politics and his run for the statehouse. There were two sessions on the law, the IRS and income taxes, by Peymon Mottahedeh of the Freedom Law School, and by Jeff Dickstein, attorney and author of "Judicial Tyranny" who outlined Bill Benson's effort to show the 16th Amendment was never properly ratified.

The afternoon panel on the 2nd amendment and gun owners' rights was by far the most popular panel of the day. Rep. Dan Itse discussed the early history of New Hampshire and the importance of it's government structure. He said "New Hampshire is the crucible of liberty," and explained why. There was also a special session with Wayne Green, founder of "Byte" and "NH To-Do" magazine covering simple solutions to many problems, focusing on natural health and current legal restrictions preventing health and food choice.

A popular session was Jim Babka of Downsize DC, making his second appearance at the Liberty Forum. Attendees were very interested in the organization's "Read the Bills Act" and "One Subject at a Time Act," both of which aim to make congressmen know more about the laws they are passing, the former actually requiring them to swear they read the bill before voting on it. He pointed out how the media willfully ignores important stories about liberty and their new "Operation Everywhere" to put the pro-liberty message in the public eye and keep it there.

Prometheus award-winning author F. Paul Wilson talked about his "Repairman Jack" series and new novel as well as discussing "freedom-based" literature in general and his own experience being a Libertarian back in the 1960s. Ed Hudgins of the Atlas Society talked about the moral imperative of liberty and the need for moral arguments to advance freedom.

A full exhibitors' hall featured many local citizens groups, a job placement agency, political parties and silver merchants.

The keynote dinner speaker, Senator John Sununu, was very popular with the attendees, particularly for his help on stopping New Hampshire's participation in Real ID. Sununu talked about his own legislative work on privacy, reducing regulation and cutting taxes. As well as working in a post-9/11 Washington and standing up against his own party on civil liberties issues. His announcement of being the lead sponsor on a bill to repeal Real ID drew a long round of applause. He said "Freedom is threatened by the constant effort to tax, tax, tax." and that "New Hampshire is the best state to live in because it has the lowest tax burden."

The Liberty Forum continues until Sunday at the Crowne Plaza in Nashua. Full details are at http://www.freestateproject.org/libertyforum

For Immediate Release

January 4, 2008

PORCUPINES TALK DRUGS, ACTIVISM, IMMIGRATION AND REAL MONEY

Nashua, NH - The first day of presentations for the 2008 Liberty Forum covered the broad themes of the War on Drugs, citizen activism, school choice, immigration and real money. "All these topics are important for moving liberty forward, which is the overall theme of the forum", said Forum organizer Chris Lawless.

Over the afternoon, attendees had the choice of presentations, covering drugs, activism and immigration. The session on the War on Drugs was led by Peter Christ, former undercover narcotics officer, who highlighted the origins in the government policy and what it has done to policing in America. In short, it has made everything worse.

Those interested in citizen activism at the federal level could hear Bob Schulz of We The People, which currently has a writ in front of the U.S. Supreme Court being heard today to hear a case to validate the right to petition for redress of grievances against the government; the Court will issue its decision on Monday morning. The writ was filed after all prior petitions concerning the income tax, the Iraq war, the Patriot Act and the Federal Reserve were ignored by the federal government.

For more local activism, Don Gorman, former state legislator and political director of the NH Liberty Alliance, gave a stirring appeal for people to move here and how they can become effective activists right away. Carla Howell of the Center for Small Government, discussed the ballot initiative in Massachusetts to eliminate the state income tax and what effect that could have on the rest of the country.

The panel on Education Choice covered homeschooling, private schools and public school choice. Gardner Goldsmith discussed the history of immigration laws and the repeated arguments of the 1800's being used today against foreign workers. He outlined his federalist position to let the states handle immigration rather than the federal government, since it has no constitutional authority to do so.

Rounding out the day was a session on the NH real estate and job market, which is a primary interest to the many would-be movers. Artist Peter Bagge of Reason Magazine related many funny stories of his journalistic endeavors.

A full exhibitors' hall featured many local citizens groups, a job placement agency, political parties, presidential campaigns and even silver merchants.

The keynote dinner featured Bernard von NotHaus, founder of the Liberty Dollar. He spoke about sound money, and how "we cannot gave good government without good money". He pointed out that the last time the global economy collapsed was the fall of Rome, which resulted in 1000 years of no liberty and no money, and how we are headed for a similar disaster if we do not take control of our money. "We are Americans. It is our duty to fix it" he said, stirring the crowd to applause.

NotHaus also announced that the Liberty Dollar is still in business with a new 2008 minting featuring an MSRP and a private barter currency marker. He said a $1 silver liberty from 1999 recently sold for $700 on eBay, showing the huge demand for an appreciating currency in contrast to the depreciating federal reserve note.

The Liberty Forum continues until Sunday at the Crowne Plaza in Nashua. Full details are at http://www.freestateproject.org/libertyforum

For Immediate Release

January 4, 2008

NEW VISION FOR FREE STATE PROJECT, TIPPING POINT FOR LIBERTARIANISM

Nashua, NH - The first day of presentations for the 2008 Liberty Forum covered several broad themes and brought together members, speakers and activists from across the country and across the world, with attendees coming from as far away as Hawaii and Australia.

At the opening ceremonies, FSP President Irena Goddard related her own family's story of escaping Communism and the parallels of her later journey as part of the Free State Project. She then announced "FSP 3.0" which will let members decide their own threshold for making the move, be it the election of a certain statist politician, the imposition of "universal health care", or the number of participants. "The goal is to refocus on the members themselves, who are really what drives the Project and its success." said Goddard.

This initiative was modeled on the successful "First 1000" project to commit 1000 members to move to New Hampshire by the end of 2008. So far, 508 members reside in New Hampshire. The new membership thresholds will be rolled out in January.

The opening ceremonies also featured Sharon Harris, of the Advocates for Self-Government, showing how Libertarianism is a "sticky" idea that is approaching its tipping point of mass adoption. She explained how liberty is a simple, profound, credible idea, the foundation for any widespread movement. The only facet it traditionally lacks, if only in tone, is the emotional impact and appeal. She pointed out that "people care about your ideas when you care about them."

Harris reminded the audience that all great progress in history has been the story of liberating humanity, be it ending feudalism or prohibition or the separating church and state. She said, "Libertarianism is the new anti-slavery movement. Be it warrantless searches, huge tax burdens, or undeclared wars, the people are yearning to be free. The future of western civilization depends upon you, let's move liberty forward."

The Liberty Forum continues until Sunday at the Crowne Plaza in Nashua. Full details are at http://www.freestateproject.org/libertyforum

###

EARLY ACTIVITY OF LIBERTY FORUM A SUCCESS

Nashua, NH - January 3, 2008 - Free State Project members enjoyed their first day visiting New Hampshire for the 2008 Liberty Forum. Members from as far away as Hawaii braved the cold and got involved. The opening day activities included trips to a firing range and the state capitol and hearing from local authors.

Dozens of members visited Manchester Firing Line to practice target shooting and use weapons which are illegal in their various home states. Everyone was given an overview of gun and range safety and of the various types of firearms. Newcomers received basic safety training from local NRA-certified instructors. As the morning continued, experienced FSP members helped the less skilled shooters.

After lunch a large group of about 40 visited the State House to watch the Legislature in session. They met several state reps and watched committee hearings on banning light bulbs, costing an adequate education, regulating clotheslines, and reducing the tolls in Merrimack, then they took a tour of the capitol.

Reps. Jason Bedrick and Dan Itse explained the legislative process and related past successes and outlined various political games that get played in Concord. They also discussed an upcoming bill for a state guard and how it related to homeland security and the National Guard.

Rep. Bedrick relayed an interesting fact on the trip: the Afganistan legislature uses the rules of the New Hampshire House. A delegation had come through last year and were so impressed with how we do things in the Granite State that they adopted it for their own use.

In the evening, at the Crowne Plaza, Sakal/CAI hosted a reception for locals and the visiting FSP members to hear from some of the authors present at the Forum. Among them were Brian Wright, James Maynard, and Gardner Goldsmith. The evening was capped by a humorous and informative re-enactment of the debate to adopt the Constitution put on by some current state representatives playing various figures from the time, including George Washington. The re-enactment covered many issues of the debate such as sound money, ceding power, managing an alliance of states, having a standing army and preserving states' interests through the Senate. After the official events broke, most attendees gathered around TVs watching the results of the Iowa Caucus or listened to interviews conducted by Free Talk Live.

The Liberty Forum runs through Sunday the 6th at the Crowne Plaza in Nashua. Full info at http://www.freestateproject.org/libertyforum

EARLY ACTIVITY OF LIBERTY FORUM A SUCCESS

Nashua, NH - January 3, 2008 - Free State Project members enjoyed their first day visiting New Hampshire for the 2008 Liberty Forum. Members from as far away as Hawaii braved the cold and got involved. The opening day activities included trips to a firing range and the state capitol and hearing from local authors.

Dozens of members visited Manchester Firing Line to practice target shooting and use weapons which are illegal in their various home states. Everyone was given an overview of gun and range safety and of the various types of firearms. Newcomers received basic safety training from local NRA-certified instructors. As the morning continued, experienced FSP members helped the less skilled shooters.

After lunch a large group of about 40 visited the State House to watch the Legislature in session. They met several state reps and watched committee hearings on banning light bulbs, costing an adequate education, regulating clotheslines, and reducing the tolls in Merrimack, then they took a tour of the capitol. Reps. Jason Bedrick and Dan Itse explained the legislative process and related past successes and outlined various political games that get played in Concord. They also discussed an upcoming bill for a state guard and how it related to homeland security and the National Guard.

In the evening, at the Crowne Plaza, Sakal/CAI hosted a reception for locals and the visiting FSP members to hear from some of the authors present at the Forum. Among them were Brian Wright, James Maynard, and Gardner Goldsmith. The evening was capped by a humorous and informative re-enactment of the debate to adopt the Constitution put on by some current state representatives playing various figures from the time, including George Washington. The re-enactment covered many issues of the debate such as sound money, ceding power, managing an alliance of states, having a standing army and preserving states' interests through the Senate. After the official events broke, most attendees gathered around TVs watching the results of the Iowa Caucus or listened to interviews conducted by Free Talk Live.

The Liberty Forum runs through Sunday the 6th at the Crowne Plaza in Nashua. Full info at http://www.freestateproject.org/libertyforum

Congressman Ron Paul to Speak at NH Liberty Forum

December 11, 2007 

Nashua, NH -- The Free State Project is pleased to announce that Congressman and presidential candidate Ron Paul will be the keynote speaker at the closing ceremonies of the upcoming New Hampshire Liberty Forum in Nashua, NH.

Congressman Paul will cap a full weekend of noteworthy speakers including Senator John Sununu and Liberty Dollar founder Bernard von NotHaus. Ron Paul will speak on Sunday afternoon, January 6th.

The recent surge in membership and movers and the ability to attract first rate speakers shows the continuing impact of the Free State Project. Irena Goddard, FSP president noted that "the presidential primary is the main reason for the surge in interest in the FSP. We are very pleased to have a pro-liberty candidate with rapidly increasing popularity as one of our featured speakers. We think it shows how serious our members are about politics and making better communities, a better state and a better country."

Other presidential campaigns have expressed interest in appearing at the forum, though no speaking times have been confirmed as yet.

The Liberty Forum is a 3-day convention focusing on successful political and social action in New Hampshire. Members and friends of the Free State Project will socialize and get a firsthand New Hampshire experience. Locals will learn about the FSP, meet its participants, and get to understand their goals and how they can work together.

There will be multiple program "tracks" covering many interests. Panel Discussions include Media, Jobs, Education choice, 2nd Amendment, Drug Policy, Making the Move, Working with Political Parties and Taxpayer Activism.

The Liberty Forum runs January 3-6, 2008 at The Crowne Plaza, Nashua, NH